A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
