Daily Homicides in Mexico Fall Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The typical figure of daily killings each month in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh official statistics. Nevertheless, security specialists have warned that homicide figures may not point to enhanced countrywide safety.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when the President began the presidential office in September. This information was provided by the director of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded over these past months is extremely important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the lowest figure of murders were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's heavily military operations to combat the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than the US. However, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an apparently steeper drop in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the President stated: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main components of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative work.
• Enhanced coordination between various departments.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

However, security researchers cautioned that using homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is especially true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be positive information if this were a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for estimating the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was additionally concerning because it may mask days when there were particularly elevated levels of killings.

“Employing the daily average makes surges of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

However despite these actions, Mexico is still beset by high violence, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the country to show their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to create a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas remarked.